Russia's Oil Industry Is Running Out of Room to Absorb More Shocks

Following a year of tighter sanctions and Ukrainian attacks on refineries, ports and tankers, Russia’s crude output has fallen further in the second half of 2026, severely affecting the nation’s crude production outlook.

Factoring in these disruptions, Rystad Energy has revised its Russian crude production forecast to average 8. 95 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2026, before declining to around 8. 6 million bpd in 2027.